Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a95621589d30e68b731c9713b36f558a62ea52c41dae1881afc52c01196dfe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 54c | 1,523$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.33 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 42c | 671.78$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.48 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 570.86$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 24c | 426.74$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.07 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 64c | 392.46$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 78c | 383.5$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.4 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 20c | 353.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.94 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 68c | 349.46$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 50c | 327.48$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 69c | 316.56$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.84 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 43c | 312.17$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.38 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 60c | 271.24$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.26 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 19c | 258.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 65c | 224.99$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 37c | 212$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.99 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 196.05$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 30c | 184.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 41c | 161.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 57c | 149.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 60c | 145.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 30c | 145.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…fe61backed No | 39c | 140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…b31ebacked No | 44c | 134.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 27c | 132.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 60c | 132$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f79…11d3backed No | 38c | 132$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 131.07$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 72c | 128.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…0ef8backed No | 79c | 126.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 21c | 126.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.56 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91b4…fa86backed No | 36c | 123$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…6117backed No | 39c | 122$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 65c | 121.55$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 30c | 116.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 43c | 106$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…6cecbacked No | 75c | 105.64$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 48c | 102.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 66c | 97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed No | 80c | 95.11$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 62c | 94.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 67c | 92.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 49c | 91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked No | 70c | 80.71$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 31c | 78.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 65c | 76.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 74.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd2…b0adbacked Yes | 15c | 74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b9…928dbacked No | 35c | 73.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 46c | 72.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 35c | 72.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 32c | 71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50bf…c756backed No | 34c | 70.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…a4efbacked Yes | 61c | 69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 74c | 68.68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked No | 33c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed No | 34c | 66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed No | 48c | 62.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 80c | 62.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 64c | 62.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 19c | 62.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…a6c1backed No | 31c | 58.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 55c | 55.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b61…4adebacked Yes | 74c | 52.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…90dabacked Yes | 64c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +125.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ee…bdffbacked Yes | 37c | 50.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 61c | 49.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…22ddbacked Yes | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 32c | 44.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 27c | 43.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 42.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9451…cdd7backed Yes | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x887a…83eabacked Yes | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2219…439fbacked Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce0…c846backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 52c | 38.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 46c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30c6…db98backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9f…bf5ebacked Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes | 59c | 33.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked Yes | 33c | 32.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…f461backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 50c | 30.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Yes | 71c | 28.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.