Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x432e93c728ccad22efdb13aef944dbec8836ea71163f96b0ac6aa8e2751eb006
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 1c | 2,472$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 19c | 787.38$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.24 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 550.45$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 32c | 447.69$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.01 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 54c | 420.25$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.75 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 55c | 304.56$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.18 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 74c | 292.64$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.26 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed Yes | 38c | 257.83$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 30c | 215.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 212.39$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 47c | 205.2$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 199.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 30c | 166$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.25 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 33c | 146$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 22c | 133.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 129.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 24c | 123.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.16 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 20c | 113.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 20c | 104.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 31c | 100.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 26c | 98.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 18c | 96.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 23c | 90.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 90.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 35c | 86.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 69c | 84.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 77.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 69c | 75.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 65.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 17c | 60.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 45c | 58.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 36c | 57.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 18c | 57.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…5842backed Yes | 25c | 57.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…274cbacked Yes | 25c | 47.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 41c | 44.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 38c | 37.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 76c | 36.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 61c | 32.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 71c | 31.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 41c | 30.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 48c | 30.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba21…1122backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 68c | 27.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 70c | 26.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…5219backed Yes | 75c | 24.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 73c | 22.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7688…497dbacked No | 68c | 15.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C or higher on March 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.