MLB · resolved market
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4acc2265aefaed3638bfbc1b8e9be1f9ffa30362cff31d623b2d522657989f89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Colorado Rockies, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Kansas City Royals | 46c | 4,085$1,878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,878.17 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 37c | 2,797$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,773.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 78c | 1,687$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.26 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 79c | 1,575$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Colorado Rockies | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Colorado Rockies | 79c | 1,324$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.54 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 1,134$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.56 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Kansas City Royals | 44c | 1,106$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.66 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 468$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 346.89$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.07 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Kansas City Royals | 62c | 293.91$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.23 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 289.7$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.77 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 244.88$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Kansas City Royals | 42c | 231.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 47c | 210.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Kansas City Royals | 67c | 160$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Colorado Rockies | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Colorado Rockies | 38c | 134.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.64 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Colorado Rockies | 36c | 132.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 93.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Colorado Rockies | 36c | 86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Colorado Rockies | 39c | 77.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Colorado Rockies | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Kansas City Royals | 76c | 60.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed Colorado Rockies | 39c | 50.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Colorado Rockies | 37c | 50.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Colorado Rockies | 38c | 38.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Colorado Rockies | 38c | 37.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 36.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Colorado Rockies | 38c | 35.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Colorado Rockies | 46c | 35.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Colorado Rockies | 38c | 31.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Colorado Rockies | 38c | 29.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Kansas City Royals | 54c | 25.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 23.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 20.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Colorado Rockies | 80c | 13.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.65 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 17.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 18.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-5.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.