MLB · resolved market
Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5e474f71c63089273a48d987911f294c27a6219ea6e226303e7ded1ed5a33d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 3,020$1,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.27 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 2,276$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.09 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 2,239$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.76 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 48c | 2,199$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.68 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,802$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 37c | 1,159$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.57 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 45c | 1,110$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.5 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 55c | 910$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.5 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Over | 44c | 558.78$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.66 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 501$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 492.67$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 292.95$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.1 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 57c | 245.61$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 136.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Over | 44c | 51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…0079backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 108 | 38.9%42 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 42c | 32.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…9b21backed Over | 45c | 30.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 56c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 55c | 20.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 17.5Over won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 18.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-5.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.