Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ad9b4974cf7f013537b188f9ef1302c0238704299abc3b5bfde36e9f2571fec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 1,793$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.56 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 64c | 1,552$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.88 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 45c | 353.64$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.57 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 58c | 345.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.17 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 36c | 307.62$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.95 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 180.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 61c | 172.17$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.31 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 154.53$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 35c | 147.38$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.88 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 36c | 140.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 125.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.78 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 37c | 120.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 46c | 117$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 115$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 40c | 114.68$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.93 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 39c | 99.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.47 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 95.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 45c | 84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 39c | 70.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 52c | 69.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 78c | 67.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 69c | 64.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 38c | 63.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 45c | 59.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 39c | 55.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 52.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 33c | 43.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 39c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 30c | 40.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3f…1839backed No | 68c | 40.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…41d4backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 61c | 39.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 42c | 38.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed No | 54c | 38.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 33.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 32.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…f0f7backed Yes | 34c | 30.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 27.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 63c | 27.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 75c | 24.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 23.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 61c | 20.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 55c | 19.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 61c | 18.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…d7b1backed No | 68c | 17.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 17.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 72c | 16.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 75c | 15.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.