College Football · resolved market
Lafayette Leopards vs. Oregon State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ae44bf9a939a22afb703ad18f7fdf92d57ac33260c808cccfe3025a87010465
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregon Stateof Lafayette Leopards, Oregon State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,326
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed88…f3c4backed Lafayette Leopards | 10c | 106,589$10,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,831.41 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x132a…abe8backed Lafayette Leopards | 22c | 14,454$3,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,159.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Oregon State | 78c | 8,906$6,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.51 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +9.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…d855backed Lafayette Leopards | 30c | 5,268$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Oregon State | 78c | 2,328$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.91 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Oregon State | 76c | 1,597$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.8 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Lafayette Leopards | 1c | 1,411$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 81 | 4.9%4 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Oregon State | 67c | 1,400$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c9…c193backed Lafayette Leopards | 14c | 1,214$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Oregon State | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Oregon State | 65c | 825$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.7 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Lafayette Leopards | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Lafayette Leopards | 34c | 429.6$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.06 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Oregon State | 74c | 375$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.71 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Lafayette Leopards | 5c | 350$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Oregon State | 71c | 292$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.04 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Lafayette Leopards | 36c | 282.93$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Oregon State | 64c | 280.29$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c4…40cdbacked Lafayette Leopards | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Lafayette Leopards | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d3…cabfbacked Lafayette Leopards | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Lafayette Leopards | 37c | 146.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Oregon State | 67c | 139$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2719backed Lafayette Leopards | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Lafayette Leopards | 48c | 83.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe478…610ebacked Lafayette Leopards | 23c | 82.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Oregon State | 68c | 80.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf939…2e92backed Oregon State | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Oregon State | 52c | 67.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf553…88e1backed Oregon State | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a1…f6f1backed Lafayette Leopards | 35c | 42.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f2…7197backed Lafayette Leopards | 33c | 30.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…3ba7backed Oregon State | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Oregon State | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Oregon State | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd67…0cfcbacked Oregon State | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…1f6fbacked Oregon State | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lafayette Leopards vs. Oregon Statethis page
- Spread: Oregon State (-21.5)Oregon State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.