Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aff9db591de5c7cf831d71d09dfb9c324f7493ed2241ef18b74ef034a611ac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,400 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Virtus.pro | 29c | 52,272$14,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,905.06 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Aurora | 72c | 29,361$21,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,221.41 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 71c | 29,000$20,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,410 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Virtus.pro | 29c | 9,000$2,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,609.98 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 71c | 8,413$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,413.15 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Virtus.pro | 28c | 6,146$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.95 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Virtus.pro | 10c | 2,015$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.38 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Virtus.pro | 27c | 1,473$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.72 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Virtus.pro | 10c | 1,456$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Virtus.pro | 26c | 1,123$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.13 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8c…f872backed Aurora | 70c | 1,030$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309 | 81 | 64.2%52 W · 29 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 70c | 1,030$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.7 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Virtus.pro | 29c | 699.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Virtus.pro | 11c | 505.57$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Aurora | 70c | 446.45$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.94 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 80c | 291.89$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Virtus.pro | 13c | 237.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Virtus.pro | 13c | 209.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x471f…5187backed Virtus.pro | 17c | 178.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed Virtus.pro | 26c | 173.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.66 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…db93backed Aurora | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…28f3backed Aurora | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…38e7backed Aurora | 74c | 128.76$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Virtus.pro | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Aurora | 72c | 104.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb020…92f3backed Aurora | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…bbeebacked Virtus.pro | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Virtus.pro | 12c | 99.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Virtus.pro | 31c | 96.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Virtus.pro | 24c | 90.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed Aurora | 70c | 83.32$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829e…2c6dbacked Virtus.pro | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…44edbacked Virtus.pro | 29c | 72.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78d6…e790backed Virtus.pro | 31c | 71.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Virtus.pro | 24c | 71.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…7287backed Aurora | 77c | 64.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…d8d8backed Aurora | 75c | 53.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…c849backed Aurora | 70c | 49.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 156 | 42.9%67 W · 89 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Virtus.pro | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Aurora | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7583…0469backed Aurora | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Aurora | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0913…7c7fbacked Aurora | 71c | 31.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Aurora | 70c | 30.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Aurora | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked Aurora | 70c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32ef…77e7backed Aurora | 78c | 28.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Aurora | 69c | 21.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.38per pick | 46cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x810f…643dbacked Aurora | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…0098backed Aurora | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53b…fe03backed Aurora | 73c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…3d33backed Aurora | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…62c8backed Aurora | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e1…02bfbacked Aurora | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.