Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x699f4a48d6e4eb6419e797786b31674a147178d6507ebd9850c820de11c74228
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,495 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro | 2c | 21,741$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.16 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Virtus.pro | 26c | 20,265$5,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,221.76 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Aurora | 73c | 10,075$7,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,720.95 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Aurora | 78c | 8,999$6,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,016.35 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…a603backed Aurora | 75c | 3,036$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.97 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Virtus.pro | 13c | 2,806$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.63 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Virtus.pro | 9c | 2,730$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.62 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 76c | 2,615$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.13 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Virtus.pro | 28c | 2,561$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.2 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Virtus.pro | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Virtus.pro | 24c | 1,807$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.08 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Virtus.pro | 15c | 1,618$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.88 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Virtus.pro | 13c | 1,501$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.23 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed Aurora | 76c | 1,442$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.53 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Aurora | 75c | 1,406$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.57 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Virtus.pro | 6c | 1,315$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 73c | 1,309$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.8 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Virtus.pro | 3c | 1,122$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Aurora | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7351…b857backed Virtus.pro | 26c | 999.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 73c | 962$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.24 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 73c | 900$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Aurora | 75c | 867.58$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.58 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 73c | 800$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Virtus.pro | 27c | 700$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Virtus.pro | 15c | 698.17$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.63 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora | 75c | 684.41$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Aurora | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 73c | 655.73$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.05 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…3087backed Virtus.pro | 26c | 643.38$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…2aaebacked Aurora | 79c | 634.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Virtus.pro | 11c | 603.3$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed Aurora | 75c | 576.48$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.48 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 73c | 551.94$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.15 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora | 75c | 466.67$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…8d10backed Aurora | 75c | 449$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.45 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora | 72c | 429.17$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.17 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 76c | 416.1$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Virtus.pro | 30c | 400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 73c | 343.07$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Virtus.pro | 7c | 314.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Virtus.pro | 4c | 236.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Virtus.pro | 17c | 215.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Virtus.pro | 6c | 198.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Virtus.pro | 13c | 179.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Aurora | 77c | 155.88$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked Aurora | 72c | 155$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Aurora | 75c | 150.76$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Virtus.pro | 25c | 150.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked Aurora | 73c | 136$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…ad81backed Aurora | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Virtus.pro | 12c | 131$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Virtus.pro | 25c | 108.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7f…f922backed Aurora | 77c | 103.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Virtus.pro | 26c | 99.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Virtus.pro | 28c | 89.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Aurora | 74c | 88.18$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…26f0backed Aurora | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Aurora | 73c | 68.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Aurora | 74c | 67.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Aurora | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebf8…7d2bbacked Aurora | 71c | 46.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…b6d5backed Aurora | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…ad9cbacked Aurora | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Aurora | 75c | 35.66$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Aurora | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Aurora | 73c | 33.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9836…5765backed Aurora | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Aurora | 78c | 29.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde89…bc4bbacked Aurora | 80c | 27.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…9428backed Aurora | 74c | 23.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Aurora | 78c | 21.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…8cc0backed Aurora | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…6223backed Aurora | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…60a0backed Aurora | 75c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…9ab8backed Aurora | 77c | 18.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…3411backed Aurora | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.