Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a1741be0cbfb16ebe9a2a58c64876e6d42f8891f9b4398368988a52d7d912a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Virtus.pro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $248,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $248,349 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Virtus.pro | 5c | 65,008$3,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,250.4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked Virtus.pro | 13c | 19,797$2,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,662.95 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Aurora | 79c | 3,178$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.95 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Virtus.pro | 29c | 2,779$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 73c | 2,731$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.59 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Virtus.pro | 6c | 2,620$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.23 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Virtus.pro | 27c | 1,750$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Virtus.pro | 31c | 1,626$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…d64fbacked Virtus.pro | 3c | 1,464$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5614…b9fbbacked Aurora | 70c | 1,209$846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.67 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Virtus.pro | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff96…027cbacked Virtus.pro | 26c | 1,132$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.91 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Virtus.pro | 28c | 1,071$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.87 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed Aurora | 77c | 959.44$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.94 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Aurora | 75c | 957.78$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.86 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Aurora | 75c | 779.51$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.51 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 77c | 767.38$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.97 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora | 70c | 642.86$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.86 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Virtus.pro | 26c | 465.37$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Virtus.pro | 10c | 464.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Aurora | 78c | 448.13$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 70c | 415.19$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Aurora | 73c | 400$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Virtus.pro | 27c | 314$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Aurora | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Virtus.pro | 26c | 299.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 72c | 254.78$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Virtus.pro | 12c | 226.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 74c | 206.13$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Virtus.pro | 14c | 149.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…67f7backed Aurora | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 191 | 62.8%120 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked Virtus.pro | 27c | 131.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Virtus.pro | 15c | 114$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dba…9529backed Aurora | 72c | 113.07$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Aurora | 72c | 98.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…63c1backed Virtus.pro | 28c | 84.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Aurora | 72c | 81.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Virtus.pro | 24c | 80.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Virtus.pro | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…df4ebacked Virtus.pro | 33c | 76.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 225 | 38.7%87 W · 138 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Virtus.pro | 33c | 76.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Virtus.pro | 22c | 75.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Aurora | 72c | 69.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7387…6345backed Aurora | 72c | 65.32$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 179 | 55.3%99 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Aurora | 71c | 65.08$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Aurora | 70c | 57.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed Aurora | 69c | 55.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…4d25backed Aurora | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…eea9backed Aurora | 77c | 49.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b54bbacked Virtus.pro | 33c | 46.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Aurora | 72c | 45.63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 565 | 48%271 W · 294 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Virtus.pro | 28c | 43.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Aurora | 79c | 42.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…b3dbbacked Virtus.pro | 29c | 37.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Aurora | 75c | 35.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 73c | 34.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Aurora | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Aurora | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked Aurora | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Aurora | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed Aurora | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…9428backed Aurora | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…81c5backed Aurora | 72c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Aurora | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…9ab8backed Aurora | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked Aurora | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…224cbacked Aurora | 78c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…6223backed Aurora | 72c | 16.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Aurora | 72c | 14.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.