Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern Wildcats: O/U 148.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b0288ee1a36bd511a9fce08410b7cf5a40bda515b637cee1f8f1399ba70bc81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe248…f293backed Under | 52c | 11,000$5,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,719.99 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 7,622$3,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,964.3 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Over | 48c | 2,985$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 2,559$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.31 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…2682backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Over | 48c | 1,479$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.17 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Under | 53c | 1,000$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +16.8wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 999.98$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 48c | 513.01$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.77 | 896 | 45.9%411 W · 485 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 488.56$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.94 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 52c | 420$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.4 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 288.76$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.59 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 61c | 236.07$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.93 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 48c | 234.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.71 | 583 | 45.5%265 W · 318 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Over | 48c | 207.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 51c | 207$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.43 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 53c | 162.32$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 52c | 149.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Over | 48c | 83.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…a8a0backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 35.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 48c | 32.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Under | 52c | 25.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69cb…a452backed Under | 64c | 19.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern Wildcats: O/U 148.5this page
- Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Northwestern WildcatsNorthwestern Wildcats won
- Spread: Northwestern Wildcats (-7.5)Northwestern Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.