Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b2534d709d3ebd5606077bd700e3d6316fa0c0fd81b79f6f8af4538eb4c83a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 17c | 21,467$3,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,583.58 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f20…96a8backed No | 80c | 10,132$8,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 20c | 7,659$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.81 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 6,627$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.79 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 20c | 6,397$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,260.03 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 80c | 4,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…8777backed Yes | 20c | 4,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed Yes | 20c | 3,974$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.08 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed No | 80c | 3,365$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.93 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,757$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.4 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 20c | 2,602$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.46 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 80c | 2,453$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.96 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked No | 79c | 1,861$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.82 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…e599backed Yes | 2c | 1,275$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Yes | 20c | 937$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.4 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Yes | 23c | 877.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked No | 80c | 826.23$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 21c | 796.51$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.27 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 766.66$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.43 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 21c | 753.41$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.99 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 15c | 634.8$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.25 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 9c | 633.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8a…e03fbacked No | 80c | 616.06$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 79c | 567.35$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.14 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…ad34backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bc…2f60backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 9c | 455$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…94bcbacked No | 80c | 425$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 9c | 380$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 80c | 317.35$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754f…ee9ebacked Yes | 23c | 219.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…425ebacked No | 80c | 206$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 75cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60f…4e23backed Yes | 10c | 203.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Yes | 21c | 185.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Yes | 20c | 176.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 19c | 161.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…b904backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…f32fbacked No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Yes | 16c | 122.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…8249backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 80c | 107.19$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1e94backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3279…a922backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 20c | 96.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 19c | 83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32e8…72ccbacked Yes | 23c | 66.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 20c | 64.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…ee49backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 23c | 62.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Yes | 21c | 60.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yes | 21c | 50.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61d8…30d9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 74cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…01f5backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 21c | 49.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe692…f7f7backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…068dbacked Yes | 22c | 45.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…f396backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 30c | 36.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…b7fdbacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…625fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…35dfbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92af…8b55backed No | 80c | 19.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 75cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc216…6e99backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.