Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cc273767ba2d6bc05252143abeca81e4715e2f922918f168825cfaf96da3dfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,369
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,369 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 7,366$5,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,916.62 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 77c | 7,146$5,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.58 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 5,354$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 23c | 3,299$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.84 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 74c | 2,374$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.52 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…4c87backed Yes | 23c | 1,900$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…0783backed Yes | 43c | 1,166$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…f52fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,121$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.89 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…fb95backed No | 76c | 499.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 74c | 378.38$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.38 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 366.75$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…cfb2backed Yes | 24c | 342$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5528…c098backed Yes | 24c | 266.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 72c | 233.35$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…de5abacked No | 76c | 229.18$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5db…f982backed Yes | 51c | 196.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked No | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…2208backed Yes | 23c | 131.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Yes | 24c | 120.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 23c | 117$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 69c | 110.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 76c | 105$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Yes | 22c | 71.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 23c | 69.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848e…d966backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 24c | 61.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 23c | 59.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3199…0a40backed Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd40b…429abacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 49c | 53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 60cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…1d14backed No | 78c | 52.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…842bbacked Yes | 23c | 52.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8a…4d5fbacked No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…616cbacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd141…5e5fbacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…0f48backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 77c | 38.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 77c | 36.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949d…374cbacked No | 77c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed No | 75c | 22.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 63c | 21.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…a9b1backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 77c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 74c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…4f81backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-07?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-02-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.