Tennis · resolved market
ITF W35 Verbier 2 Women: Karolina Kozakova vs Noelia Manta
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b2b5c7844fe03eed06a2f4e9dbd01db61ab80421174b690e24559bc12614a95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noelia Mantaof Karolina Kozakova, Noelia Manta
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Noelia Manta | 35c | 10,469$3,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,824.94 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Karolina Kozakova | 65c | 8,800$5,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,694.53 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Karolina Kozakova | 74c | 1,364$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.31 | 221 | 50.7%112 W · 109 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Noelia Manta | 78c | 1,000$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.25 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Karolina Kozakova | 22c | 525$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 4,882 | 38.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Karolina Kozakova | 65c | 458$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.71 | 4,159 | 52.8%2,198 W · 1,961 L | +66.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Noelia Manta | 39c | 328$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.1 | 805 | 58.6%472 W · 333 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Noelia Manta | 37c | 327.87$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.56 | 1,634 | 50%817 W · 817 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Karolina Kozakova | 63c | 315.87$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Karolina Kozakova | 34c | 279.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,011 | 41.4%419 W · 592 L | -23.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Noelia Manta | 38c | 231.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.53 | 737 | 38.8%286 W · 451 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Noelia Manta | 38c | 205.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 1,252 | 38.8%486 W · 766 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Noelia Manta | 32c | 203.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.83 | 1,624 | 54.4%883 W · 741 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2e…37cabacked Noelia Manta | 79c | 189.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Karolina Kozakova | 23c | 156.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 6,419 | 46.4%2,978 W · 3,441 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Karolina Kozakova | 67c | 148.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 2,997 | 57.3%1,717 W · 1,280 L | +170.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Noelia Manta | 36c | 142.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 3,187 | 48.4%1,542 W · 1,645 L | -46.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…1cebbacked Karolina Kozakova | 35c | 141.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 184 | 39.1%72 W · 112 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Karolina Kozakova | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 277 | 54.5%151 W · 126 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Noelia Manta | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 2,575 | 46.4%1,195 W · 1,380 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Noelia Manta | 28c | 98.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 597 | 38.2%228 W · 369 L | -27.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Noelia Manta | 30c | 66.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Karolina Kozakova | 50c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 443 | 65.9%292 W · 151 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Noelia Manta | 35c | 40.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 336 | 48.8%164 W · 172 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Noelia Manta | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 599 | 41.1%246 W · 353 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Karolina Kozakova | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 304 | 65.1%198 W · 106 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf9…8292backed Karolina Kozakova | 71c | 26.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 587 | 57.8%339 W · 248 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e7…3521backed Karolina Kozakova | 67c | 22.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc40…6ae3backed Karolina Kozakova | 67c | 22.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Karolina Kozakova | 67c | 21.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 726 | 61.8%449 W · 277 L | +25.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aab…c4ddbacked Karolina Kozakova | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Noelia Manta | 72c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 699 | 47.8%334 W · 365 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Karolina Kozakova | 71c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3,631 | 54.9%1,995 W · 1,636 L | +110.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Karolina Kozakova | 70c | 15.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 7,745 | 50.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L | +93.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.