Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will MH Beitar Jerusalem vs. FK Austria Wien end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b46bf2bd95ef4952ae2c3305c8782f167dfd73572aa4946754c7f98538a0a3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 30c | 5,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 70c | 2,231$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.44 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…73e7backed Yes | 28c | 1,777$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 71c | 1,429$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.22 | 661 | 50.5%334 W · 327 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 43c | 1,121$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.55 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 70c | 940.41$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.32 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 61c | 842.92$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.66 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 806.42$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.46 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 70c | 800$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60bd…2469backed Yes | 1c | 750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked No | 66c | 694.37$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.19 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 34c | 684.37$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.69 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 70c | 362.64$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 694 | 48.8%339 W · 355 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 51c | 361.68$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.22 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…7bc4backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Yes | 45c | 133.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 26c | 120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed No | 69c | 95.77$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed No | 80c | 95.22$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x276a…fc66backed No | 77c | 93.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 69c | 66.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed No | 69c | 61.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 45c | 54.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 77c | 52.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ac…7ad0backed No | 64c | 52.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 46c | 51.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Yes | 45c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 44 | 79.5%35 W · 9 L | +8.0wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 70cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked No | 76c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will MH Beitar Jerusalem vs. FK Austria Wien end in a draw?this page
- Will FK Austria Wien win on 2026-08-06?Yes won
- Will MH Beitar Jerusalem win on 2026-08-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.