Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-09?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b4960f8991ec087364a8bb343157c1678c60154afa99bbeda9750cc2059b124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes | 3c | 15,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Yes | 5c | 10,143$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…a5efbacked Yes | 5c | 6,264$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 6c | 3,580$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.56 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,673$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 16c | 1,266$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.57 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 2c | 1,259$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…7001backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 14c | 1,125$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.93 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57c…66febacked Yes | 5c | 1,002$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -83%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 16c | 478.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 16c | 399.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 8c | 280$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 14c | 179.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 16c | 179.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e3…3337backed Yes | 17c | 176.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 9c | 175.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…4811backed Yes | 15c | 106.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 16c | 90.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-09?this page
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.