Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7125ff38603e945f2a07cd2c03b9caad94df3317ad27b17aeac60c651d2e28f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 80c | 10,000$8,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 20c | 9,701$1,928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.19 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 8,931$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.51 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 20c | 8,812$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.28 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Yes | 19c | 6,137$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.96 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed No | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 11c | 2,668$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.16 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…3eddbacked Yes | 19c | 2,237$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 12c | 1,543$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.95 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 12c | 1,207$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…c775backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 12c | 573$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 15c | 478.64$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 18c | 440.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 19c | 385.04$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 11c | 369.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 12c | 352.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Yes | 9c | 277.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…3f90backed Yes | 8c | 257.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 9c | 211.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 17cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Yes | 10c | 205.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 19c | 126.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 19c | 106.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 18c | 101.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Yes | 19c | 99.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…05a3backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x877c…e669backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…b9debacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked No | 80c | 26.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?this page
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-05-09?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.