Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b5a2cc1d5ff18274161a042f0d5232a6020eb723fd2deb018f69a25d5dbdd66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,575$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 6c | 221.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 198.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 190.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 187.73$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 78c | 153.14$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 77c | 130.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 99.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 25c | 79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 74c | 78.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 68.88$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 18c | 66.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 17c | 62.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 18c | 57.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 56.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 54.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 52.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 49.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 78c | 44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…3269backed No | 77c | 42.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 28c | 41.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 73c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 17.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59e…8baebacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0971…f2efbacked No | 73c | 14.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 76c | 13.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.