Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6a9a611b7efea55c9610d465f1711b6a56d73789d44e3ab4e63311dd7e5301a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 343.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 235.83$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 199.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 177.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 164.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 14c | 137.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 77c | 118.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…3269backed No | 76c | 115.39$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 31c | 104.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 10c | 99.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 12c | 83.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 16c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 77.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 72.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 27c | 66.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 17c | 62.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 76 | 14.5%11 W · 65 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…a938backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…8a92backed Yes | 28c | 55.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 54.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 79c | 52.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 47.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 26c | 41.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 66c | 37.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…0900backed No | 71c | 31.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 30.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 80c | 26.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2b9abacked No | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b1…5441backed No | 77c | 16.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…6a0bbacked No | 73c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 75c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.