Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd97a9f0dac26ffd57bac8d94e0c7dd6f129f4b673970cdd7df076d0e98a8ad0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,592
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,592 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 461.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac91…5d29backed Yes | 11c | 251.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 11c | 220.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 32c | 162.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 41c | 146$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 9c | 140.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 18c | 108.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 94.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 91.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 33c | 90.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 41c | 79.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 13c | 79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 15c | 74.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed No | 77c | 65.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 66c | 64.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 61.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 59c | 57.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 20c | 57.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 45c | 56.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 53.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 34c | 47.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 70c | 45.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 67c | 44.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes | 33c | 41.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 37c | 41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…3269backed No | 78c | 38.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 55c | 37.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 69c | 37.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 40c | 31.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 80c | 30.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 38c | 27.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…bbeabacked No | 68c | 21.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66d3…7badbacked No | 80c | 21.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 17.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked No | 72c | 17.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…3666backed No | 67c | 16.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 72c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 80c | 16.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.