Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0827d89543a4a645fbf6f6566acc41b403e2643dcd65ddc56bef7590b5ae1191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 219.47$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 213.42$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 42c | 189.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.76 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 68c | 133.07$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe2…f2b0backed Yes | 35c | 125.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ad…c303backed No | 66c | 101$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 14c | 96.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 92.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…aadbbacked No | 27c | 92.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…c243backed Yes | 34c | 82.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +130.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 34c | 79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 77$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed No | 68c | 73.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed Yes | 34c | 69.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 69.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 43c | 65.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 67c | 57.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 26c | 57.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 57.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 56.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 77c | 50.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…91f9backed No | 71c | 41.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes | 37c | 41.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 34c | 41.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 54c | 40.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 39.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 32c | 39.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 32c | 33.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 33.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed No | 59c | 32.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407e…5bf0backed No | 71c | 27.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 59c | 27.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 24.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…3475backed No | 60c | 24.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 66c | 22.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 64c | 21.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 20.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…0900backed No | 65c | 19.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 66c | 19.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 76c | 18.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 17.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 17.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 66c | 16.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked No | 67c | 15.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 76°F or higher on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.