Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b5d01e230abcaa44d5981807a12c4be96b0b28adf508d0e495ab5193cd3a30f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 12c | 1,822$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.1 | 131 | 27.5%36 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 708.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 78c | 606.4$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.89 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 3c | 503.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 15c | 469.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 455.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1,569 | 16.3%255 W · 1,314 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 13c | 369.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 23c | 275.52$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 967 | 33.3%322 W · 645 L | +27.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 261.79$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.13 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 19c | 226.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 29c | 212.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 68c | 173.04$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 221 | 60.6%134 W · 87 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 14c | 162.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,877 | 18.5%348 W · 1,529 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 76c | 152.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 634 | 60.3%382 W · 252 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 150.4$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 23c | 137.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 21c | 136.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 20c | 108.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 23c | 107.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 38c | 106.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 336 | 46.4%156 W · 180 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 104.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 42c | 100.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 69c | 99.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 21c | 98.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 91.05$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked No | 73c | 90.44$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 181 | 57.5%104 W · 77 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 87.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…d5b1backed Yes | 24c | 74.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 20c | 74.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +11.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 38c | 73.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 374 | 34.8%130 W · 244 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 22c | 70.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 31c | 69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x637d…7df1backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 80c | 60.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 72c | 57.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 211 | 68.7%145 W · 66 L | +12.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d04…6298backed Yes | 28c | 52.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 79c | 50.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 24c | 46.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 77c | 45.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 697 | 58.4%407 W · 290 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 44c | 45.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4d…5462backed Yes | 33c | 39.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 72c | 32.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 499 | 51.7%258 W · 241 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 32.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 43c | 27.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 148 | 39.9%59 W · 89 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 25.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 231 | 30.7%71 W · 160 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 61c | 19.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…cdbabacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 15.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.