Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf7a37d8a2a84b655ed971f27193dcb110f8d71f1ba8d40222624f744a5cfc6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 13c | 2,029$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.62 | 131 | 27.5%36 W · 95 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 965.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 21c | 897.97$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.84 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 866.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.77 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 12c | 520.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 511.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,569 | 16.3%255 W · 1,314 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Yes | 27c | 383.63$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 358.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 7c | 322.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 4c | 266$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 967 | 33.3%322 W · 645 L | +27.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 4c | 239.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 215.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 9c | 199.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 431 | 53.1%229 W · 202 L | +25.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 8c | 186.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 27c | 185$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 179$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 15c | 171.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 16c | 168.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 254 | 29.1%74 W · 180 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 336 | 46.4%156 W · 180 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 140.65$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 79c | 130.35$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 23c | 101.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 400 | 30.3%121 W · 279 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 19c | 97.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 24c | 95.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 91.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 29c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 620 | 44%273 W · 347 L | +25.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6845backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 30c | 65.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 164 | 73.2%120 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 79c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 180 | 76.1%137 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 78c | 33.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…a20cbacked No | 80c | 17.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.