Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48e5b6c3876bc1cef7b768bdcad94cf3e7a4f5924183df362d9351f69f479dc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,097
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 2,028$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.23 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 26c | 1,075$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.05 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 71c | 894.74$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.64 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 19c | 843.78$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.3 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 691.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 498.29$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.14 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 17c | 424.48$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 12c | 417.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 412 | 26.5%109 W · 303 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 9c | 348.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 16c | 299.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f5…6d8dbacked Yes | 6c | 264.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 13c | 220.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 416 | 51.9%216 W · 200 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 218.17$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.03 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 79c | 191.7$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 62c | 158.33$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.96 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 67c | 145$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 69c | 102.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 98.49$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 70c | 95.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5c…c6f3backed Yes | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 17c | 82.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 80.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 64c | 76.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 23c | 63.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 65c | 62.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 456 | 30%137 W · 319 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 36c | 55.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 54.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 330 | 37.9%125 W · 205 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546a…1988backed No | 62c | 52.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 24c | 49.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 71c | 44.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 44.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…5909backed Yes | 33c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 36c | 41.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 199 | 46.2%92 W · 107 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 485 | 46%223 W · 262 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 77c | 38.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 35c | 36.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 195 | 35.9%70 W · 125 L | -39.3wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 40c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 67c | 34.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 66c | 34.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 79c | 33.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -21.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 40c | 32.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 30.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…4f66backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…66bdbacked No | 63c | 29.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 76c | 27.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 72c | 24.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed No | 67c | 20.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 71c | 20.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked No | 66c | 20.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 61c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 80c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.