Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47836f58a2ee06b4cfa71be63dd00698914e8fd9192b3e4837955c7cc62880e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 26c | 1,260$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.98 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 18c | 837.14$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.59 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 2c | 751.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,569 | 16.3%255 W · 1,314 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 704.37$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.21 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 646.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1,119 | 23.7%265 W · 854 L | +74.2wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 598.45$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 435.46$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 20c | 432.89$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.69 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 20c | 408$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 288 | 45.1%130 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed Yes | 4c | 402.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 111 | 15.3%17 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 13c | 339.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed No | 75c | 313.51$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 218.5$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.62 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 24c | 211.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 195.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 190.08$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 21c | 178.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 28c | 172.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 30c | 166$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 1,246 | 30%374 W · 872 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 164.7$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 159.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 154.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 218 | 33%72 W · 146 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…c84fbacked No | 74c | 154.47$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 76c | 150.97$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 21c | 129.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 24c | 118.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 110.25$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 109$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 105.55$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed Yes | 25c | 105.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 26c | 101.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 400 | 30.3%121 W · 279 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 17c | 96.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 79c | 85.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 71c | 77.54$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…1e2abacked Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…d2cebacked Yes | 25c | 68.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 24c | 66.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 65.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 17c | 62.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 61.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…d959backed Yes | 29c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 75c | 57.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 53.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 22c | 50.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 959 | 19.7%189 W · 770 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…8c99backed No | 76c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…5aa1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…ee88backed No | 76c | 28.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 75c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…2089backed No | 76c | 26.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 74c | 20.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…1588backed No | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 75c | 18.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 79c | 18.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 77c | 17.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.