Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d58db5e39d372d6bfd884689424c302f9091a47b26552c46ef908b9eb3a8ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 19c | 1,395$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.49 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 18c | 1,204$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 412 | 26.5%109 W · 303 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 5c | 434.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 17c | 355.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 679 | 25.8%175 W · 504 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 331.33$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec90…fd41backed Yes | 22c | 220$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 219 | 40.6%89 W · 130 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 8c | 176.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 24c | 169.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 22c | 160$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 316 | 57.6%182 W · 134 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e00…5a84backed No | 80c | 159.59$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 157.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 23c | 133$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 19c | 132.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 124.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 24c | 119.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 110.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…0395backed Yes | 12c | 108.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 15c | 105.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 190 | 46.3%88 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f5…6d8dbacked Yes | 11c | 99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…cae8backed Yes | 21c | 94.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 94.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 23c | 86.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 83.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 525 | 67%352 W · 173 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 78c | 81.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 77c | 80.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 20c | 73.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 15c | 67.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 58.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 3,126 | 61.8%1,931 W · 1,195 L | -30.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…5909backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc4…a136backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 76c | 39.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 36.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 30.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,196 | 50.8%608 W · 588 L | -27.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 69c | 23.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 323 | 82%265 W · 58 L | +32.7wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 79c | 22.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 75c | 19.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 199 | 46.2%92 W · 107 L | -14.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 17.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or higher on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.