Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b6096f942250e58c9ac2afb076821b3901acb2e664b7d9dde9119ae43828394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 59c | 477.41$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.88 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 324.91$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 28c | 212.61$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.8 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 34c | 206.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.78 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 14c | 188.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 180.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 173.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.52 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 7c | 170.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 150.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed No | 75c | 149.79$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 9c | 142.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 22c | 131.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.89 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 122.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 58c | 112.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 77c | 100.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 99.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 24c | 96.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 43c | 91.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 12c | 88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 65c | 86.05$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 44c | 80.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 79.65$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 77c | 78.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 69.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 48c | 60.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 54.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 47.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b2…605cbacked No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 43.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 42.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 65c | 42.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 64c | 40.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 36.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 77c | 36.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…c9a9backed Yes | 55c | 35.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 28.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 25.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed Yes | 75c | 24.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 23.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…58b6backed No | 79c | 20.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 68c | 16.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da4…0f36backed No | 75c | 13.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.