Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb53e735e9ab6e30c1b9a0359649261fe3147cf36befb4496b087e2360175e35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,835$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 13c | 822.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 57c | 481.12$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.16 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 43c | 414.19$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.62 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 65c | 409.08$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 9c | 396.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 350.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 73c | 150.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 147.49$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 44c | 136.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 44c | 134.94$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 58c | 133.86$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.11 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 47c | 126.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 39c | 89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 67c | 82.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 19c | 78.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 26c | 68.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 64.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 54c | 62.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 74c | 51.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 49.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 57c | 46.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 42c | 46.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 47c | 43.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4c…a2c1backed No | 74c | 42.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 61c | 41.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 42c | 36.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 64c | 34.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 34.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 33.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 61c | 32.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 33c | 32.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 37c | 31.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 50c | 29.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 39c | 29.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 50c | 22.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8752…31b6backed Yes | 56c | 22.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 49c | 22.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…7859backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 19.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 79c | 18.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 78c | 14.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.