NBA · resolved market
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b8768d1c03f9fbd9f45a8def6db379185100033754f896c6be1073c6b53a776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Knicksof Knicks, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Knicks | 52c | 15,756$8,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,516.35 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Knicks | 50c | 10,184$5,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,097.46 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…43c8backed Bulls | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…fed1backed Knicks | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,900 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x154c…ce5ebacked Bulls | 49c | 6,200$3,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,038 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bulls | 49c | 5,992$2,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,935.99 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bulls | 48c | 5,500$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,640 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Knicks | 50c | 3,088$1,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.98 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bulls | 50c | 2,534$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,267.06 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…e5ffbacked Knicks | 51c | 2,200$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,078 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Bulls | 44c | 535$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.4 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f82…9ae1backed Bulls | 51c | 490.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Knicks | 57c | 445$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.2 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Knicks | 48c | 202.73$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.14 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bulls | 42c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Knicks | 60c | 135$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 48c | 126.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 310 | 55.5%172 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…2cf8backed Bulls | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -7.7wins | -0.35per pick | 62cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…0afebacked Bulls | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Bulls | 51c | 45.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Bulls | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Knicks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435f…29b5backed Bulls | 51c | 33.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Knicks | 52c | 22.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 134 | 56.7%76 W · 58 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff1…3042backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…75a1backed Bulls | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Knicks (-7.5)this page
- Bulls vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Bulls vs. Knicks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Knicks: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.