South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b99a6502f4394dedf8fc340faae8718a36137fe148d84f95e333b81044343dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 49c | 6,572$3,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,216.36 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 58c | 4,028$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.08 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 22c | 3,953$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.95 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 25c | 2,013$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.5 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 31c | 1,505$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.74 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 35c | 471.85$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.11 | 138 | 28.3%39 W · 99 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 39c | 384.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.04 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…ef8ebacked No | 77c | 266.46$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.17 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bf…b006backed No | 76c | 266.43$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.49 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 19c | 253.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 66c | 201.5$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…b254backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 24c | 139.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.38 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 22c | 113.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 75c | 113$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…134fbacked Yes | 26c | 112.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +160.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed No | 74c | 90.46$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 84.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 81.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 29c | 80.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 41c | 71.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 78c | 69.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 75c | 68$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 27c | 55.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 32c | 54.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Yes | 78c | 51.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 75c | 50.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 50.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…a012backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 70c | 35.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8367…7eaebacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed Yes | 79c | 19.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 74c | 18.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 66c | 17.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaee…9c5fbacked No | 74c | 15.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?this page
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-17?No won
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.