South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27c13da9d62610a0d99bc4ebb710dc8511fae821ad08464013f0ba0d4f2b1134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 10,830$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.56 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 69c | 6,306$4,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.07 | 752 | 40.8%307 W · 445 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 20c | 5,516$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.69 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 19c | 4,200$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 56c | 1,888$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.13 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…9013backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 18c | 937.77$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.12 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 78c | 800.68$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.46 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 17c | 566.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 538 | 36.8%198 W · 340 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Yes | 10c | 283.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 56c | 259.82$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.32 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…41adbacked Yes | 19c | 207$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Yes | 55c | 174.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.25 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 16c | 161.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…e209backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d95…fe91backed Yes | 58c | 102.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 19c | 97.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 269 | 65.4%176 W · 93 L | +48.9wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…21a7backed Yes | 56c | 94.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…9fe7backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 44c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 78c | 59.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb8…8883backed Yes | 54c | 58.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Yes | 19c | 57.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…c1eabacked Yes | 59c | 47.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 44c | 40.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 29c | 36.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 80c | 34.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 79c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked No | 54c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 168 | 45.2%76 W · 92 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will EC Bahia vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?Yes won
- Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.