MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ba8d526efb4f729a14bd67a8ab7914d7f145beba566c7584fe4460a8a165a81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marlinsof Athletics, Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins | 16c | 5,121$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,309.7 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Athletics | 78c | 3,277$2,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.63 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Marlins | 54c | 2,810$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.48 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Marlins | 25c | 2,141$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,614.82 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Marlins | 52c | 1,947$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.53 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marlins | 31c | 1,717$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Athletics | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Athletics | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Athletics | 71c | 975$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins | 53c | 774.83$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.7 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Athletics | 46c | 748$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.08 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Athletics | 70c | 700$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…8687backed Athletics | 75c | 670.67$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Athletics | 48c | 666.67$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Marlins | 39c | 517.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.95 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Athletics | 45c | 463.82$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.72 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Athletics | 67c | 388.8$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.56 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 26c | 334.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.91 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Athletics | 78c | 320.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 178 | 66.3%118 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fc…3280backed Athletics | 47c | 297.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Marlins | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Marlins | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Marlins | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…46e8backed Marlins | 55c | 167.97$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Marlins | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Athletics | 67c | 53.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Athletics | 48c | 50.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Marlins | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Athletics | 76c | 42.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Athletics | 48c | 37.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Athletics | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 382 | 45.5%174 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa3…072dbacked Athletics | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Athletics | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Marlins | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Athletics | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.