Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Arnaldi (-1.5) vs Gomez (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bb69a2ec9c7d3b3edbcff7440c3080979348ac9db3ba5452e6784e5b33c3b63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gomezof Arnaldi, Gomez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Arnaldi | 56c | 17,845$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Gomez | 45c | 6,184$2,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,400.98 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Gomez | 44c | 6,000$2,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,329.99 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Gomez | 43c | 1,805$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.12 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Gomez | 40c | 1,321$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.09 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Gomez | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.5 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Gomez | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Gomez | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 263 | 45.6%120 W · 143 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Gomez | 44c | 383$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.76 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Gomez | 31c | 364$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.6 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Arnaldi | 71c | 264.12$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.58 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Gomez | 41c | 240$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Arnaldi | 74c | 149.89$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.44 | 397 | 51.4%204 W · 193 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Gomez | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.86 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Gomez | 45c | 137.18$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.45 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Gomez | 18c | 122.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Gomez | 42c | 108$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 557 | 48.8%272 W · 285 L | +23.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b77…6ba1backed Gomez | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Gomez | 23c | 76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Arnaldi | 72c | 68.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.43 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Arnaldi | 77c | 64.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Gomez | 29c | 63.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x085a…58a8backed Arnaldi | 53c | 54.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Arnaldi | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Gomez | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Arnaldi | 58c | 19.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Arnaldi (-1.5) vs Gomez (+1.5)this page
- Croatia Open: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Matteo ArnaldiMatteo Arnaldi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.