Europa Conference League · resolved market
FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bc2e6a2e84356451a6d9c4b6ef6a0dbe7ca5bf920f82712f06227971f1e3fad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd09…8974backed Over | 1c | 11,769$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -81%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,766$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.54 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 1,628$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.96 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fe…3c28backed Over | 1c | 1,555$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 1,384$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.41 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Under | 10c | 1,332$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.58 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…7656backed Under | 75c | 1,327$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.53 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 34c | 1,251$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.42 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb54c…500abacked Over | 66c | 1,068$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 68c | 833.77$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.4 | 314 | 30.3%95 W · 219 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 73c | 688.79$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.82 | 568 | 49.6%282 W · 286 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 78c | 668.75$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.75 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…ab50backed Under | 61c | 394$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.29 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…142bbacked Under | 13c | 361.54$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.54 | 81 | 21%17 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 14c | 225.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 65c | 196.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 79c | 191.85$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.36 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 51c | 177.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 28c | 173.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 69c | 162.47$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 278 | 46.4%129 W · 149 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 23c | 157.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 72c | 140.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…fb20backed Over | 74c | 140$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Over | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 52c | 124.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 76c | 107.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 57c | 105.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.35 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 57c | 105.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 52c | 103.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 53c | 102.72$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 72c | 98.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 239 | 50.2%120 W · 119 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 43c | 93.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…728fbacked Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 67c | 63.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 38c | 55.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed Under | 71c | 48.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 70c | 34.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 294 | 70.1%206 W · 88 L | +21.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 33c | 32.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Over | 74c | 30.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: O/U 0.5this page
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: Both Teams to Score in Second HalfNo won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: FC Spartak Trnava 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: FC Spartak Trnava O/U 1.5Under won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: FK CSKA 1948 Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5Under won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: FK CSKA 1948 Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5Under won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: FK CSKA 1948 Sofia O/U 1.5Under won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: O/U 1.5Under won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: O/U 2.5Under won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: O/U 4.5Under won
- FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: Team to AdvanceFK CSKA 1948 Sofia won
- Spread: FK CSKA 1948 Sofia (-1.5)FC Spartak Trnava won
- Spread: FK CSKA 1948 Sofia (-2.5)FC Spartak Trnava won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.