TailMyPicks

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Europa Conference League · resolved market

FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: Team to Advance

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
FK CSKA 1948 Sofiaof FK CSKA 1948 Sofia, FC Spartak Trnava
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,366 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2220…1a0fbacked FC Spartak Trnava9c2,222$200 inLost-$2001330.8%4 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde3d…6b1fbacked FC Spartak Trnava30c624.37$187 inLost-$186.751040%4 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed FC Spartak Trnava32c411.6$130 inLost-$129.75563.6%35 W · 20 L+8.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+36%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6868…24f0backed FK CSKA 1948 Sofia69c300$207 inWon+$9320740.1%83 W · 124 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Spartak Trnava30c230.22$69 inLost-$69.071,31650.8%668 W · 648 L+33.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed FK CSKA 1948 Sofia70c209.84$147 inWon+$62.951,03950%520 W · 519 L+26.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed FK CSKA 1948 Sofia71c148.4$105 inWon+$43.4638144.1%168 W · 213 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x488c…a2dabacked FK CSKA 1948 Sofia70c142.86$100 inWon+$42.868750.6%44 W · 43 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed FK CSKA 1948 Sofia70c120$84 inWon+$366726.9%18 W · 49 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed FC Spartak Trnava32c103.2$33 inLost-$32.5279354.2%430 W · 363 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed FK CSKA 1948 Sofia68c100$68 inWon+$3239357.5%226 W · 167 L+17.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2458…bd24backed FK CSKA 1948 Sofia69c86.96$60 inWon+$26.963046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Spartak Trnava13c77.73$10 inLost-$10.3778344.8%351 W · 432 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed FK CSKA 1948 Sofia70c72.73$51 inWon+$22.11,11435.8%399 W · 715 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed FK CSKA 1948 Sofia70c62$43 inWon+$18.61,57355.7%876 W · 697 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc581…0f24backed FK CSKA 1948 Sofia70c49.37$35 inWon+$14.81666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+27.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33cc…22ebbacked FK CSKA 1948 Sofia67c45.52$30 inWon+$15.02366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e39…fe16backed FC Spartak Trnava36c44.44$16 inLost-$16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a62…4ab9backed FK CSKA 1948 Sofia61c39.34$24 inWon+$15.346628.8%19 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff5…655bbacked FK CSKA 1948 Sofia70c28.57$20 inWon+$8.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76f…39fcbacked FK CSKA 1948 Sofia70c21.43$15 inWon+$6.432748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.