TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbff5…655b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
39
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: China Taiwan, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category China Taiwan at 54 out of 100; worst WNBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT2157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked Colorado Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Soxbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangersbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$20.82
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Metsbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationalsbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangersbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$20
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.36
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
All 21 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+90.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Feverbacked Connecticut Sun · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mysticsbacked Las Vegas Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
New York Liberty vs. Dallas Wingsbacked Dallas Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 3 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Vitória SC win on 2026-08-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-07-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFClast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$333Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$333.28
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+724.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+724.3%+$144.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FK CSKA 1948 Sofia vs. FC Spartak Trnava: Team to Advancebacked FK CSKA 1948 Sofia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.