Tennis · resolved market
Tauson vs. Kessler: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bd2c1f73d1d05fa25b73aa7b4ceceea549a82968ead459195802184cfc8f639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc938…af43backed Over | 23c | 83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Over | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Over | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Over | 23c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Under | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Under | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Under | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Under | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Under | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…9f7cbacked Under | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bbe8backed Under | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Under | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Under | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadc…a4e8backed Under | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5this page
- Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Clara Tauson vs McCartney KesslerTauson won
- Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs KesslerTauson won
- Set Handicap: Tauson (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5)Tauson won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.