Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tauson (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dda6173fc5d1d49510f0a6f77ae20ef754071a52d8e527b146a2235590fb988
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tausonof Tauson, Kessler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kessler | 49c | 472.03$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.76 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4173…d3edbacked Tauson | 44c | 432$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 556 | 46.4%258 W · 298 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kessler | 60c | 311.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.14 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Tauson | 45c | 218$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.96 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tauson | 40c | 171.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.54 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Kessler | 60c | 165.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Tauson | 36c | 153$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.59 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Tauson | 44c | 112.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Tauson | 53c | 93.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Tauson | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9d62backed Tauson | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 352 | 48.6%171 W · 181 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Tauson | 40c | 81.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…6541backed Kessler | 65c | 80.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Kessler | 63c | 79.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c9…2669backed Tauson | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Tauson | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Kessler | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Kessler | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dae…a50bbacked Tauson | 44c | 29.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Kessler | 56c | 29.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Kessler | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d78…4756backed Kessler | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Kessler | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Kessler | 48c | 23.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Kessler | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…6d13backed Kessler | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Kessler | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tauson (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5)this page
- Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Clara Tauson vs McCartney KesslerTauson won
- Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs KesslerTauson won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.