Tennis · resolved market
Tauson vs. Kessler: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fb2d2b4ae5e39e63b4f5ffd2b7f5752e5fd090082692a46bd055820eb58323c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9142…b920backed Over | 53c | 7,991$4,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,235.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59c…ed0bbacked Under | 47c | 7,977$3,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,227.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eba…ba65backed Under | 47c | 7,747$3,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,105.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f00…94c1backed Over | 53c | 7,733$4,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,098.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 46c | 249.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 242.58$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.04 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Over | 54c | 201.28$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 194 | 52.1%101 W · 93 L | -13.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Under | 47c | 101$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 54c | 98.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 47c | 93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 47c | 82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 47c | 74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 184 | 47.3%87 W · 97 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 56c | 34.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Over | 50c | 33.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Over | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d49…c438backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…92cbbacked Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 50c | 27.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…cccebacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Clara Tauson vs McCartney KesslerTauson won
- Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs KesslerTauson won
- Set Handicap: Tauson (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5)Tauson won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.