Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs Kessler
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x779ae1527174bd3d4c569b2e7a2262ebf74c218fe3573b0b9394f2debdfbe9c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tausonof Tauson, Kessler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437c…f458backed Tauson | 61c | 4,875$2,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.31 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kessler | 36c | 1,477$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.17 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Kessler | 38c | 1,214$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.42 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Kessler | 38c | 1,019$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.38 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…2365backed Tauson | 60c | 504$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Kessler | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kessler | 39c | 470$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.97 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…583abacked Kessler | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Kessler | 24c | 254.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Kessler | 41c | 190$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +8.8wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Kessler | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tauson | 70c | 131.07$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…0d67backed Kessler | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Kessler | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,258 | 50%629 W · 629 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Kessler | 41c | 108$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Kessler | 41c | 104$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked Tauson | 78c | 63.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 87 | 67.8%59 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Kessler | 40c | 63.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a9…0d53backed Kessler | 41c | 63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Kessler | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Kessler | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 275 | 43.3%119 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Tauson | 75c | 46.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Tauson | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Tauson | 59c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kessler | 39c | 38.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4f…73a6backed Tauson | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Tauson | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Tauson | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Tauson | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ec…06aabacked Tauson | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Tauson | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Tauson | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Kessler | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kessler | 40c | 25.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 248 | 46%114 W · 134 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…23c6backed Tauson | 59c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…9fcabacked Tauson | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Tauson | 59c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed Tauson | 75c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +7.6wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Tauson | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Tauson | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Tauson | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs Kesslerthis page
- Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Clara Tauson vs McCartney KesslerTauson won
- Set Handicap: Tauson (-1.5) vs Kessler (+1.5)Tauson won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Tauson vs. Kessler: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.