TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Set 1 Winner: Tauson vs Kessler

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Tausonof Tauson, Kessler
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,941 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x437c…f458backed Tauson61c4,875$2,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.3112442.7%53 W · 71 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kessler36c1,477$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.177,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Kessler38c1,214$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.426,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Kessler38c1,019$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.387238.9%28 W · 44 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x279b…2365backed Tauson60c504$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2047237.5%27 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Kessler40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Kessler39c470$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.9795140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0fd…583abacked Kessler40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Kessler24c254.04$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2252037.7%196 W · 324 L-30.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Kessler41c190$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.92982.8%24 W · 5 L+8.8wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+57.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed Kessler38c157.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6027539.6%109 W · 166 L+1.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Tauson70c131.07$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Kessler42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.425237.3%94 W · 158 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Kessler45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,25850%629 W · 629 L-4.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd851…9305backed Kessler41c108$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.283452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cf9…1abfbacked Kessler41c104$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.641752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x850a…e5dbbacked Tauson78c63.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.918767.8%59 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Kessler40c63.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.567,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48a9…0d53backed Kessler41c63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.832343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Kessler41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.549143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Kessler41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.527543.3%119 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2344…6ba3backed Tauson75c46.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9510150.5%51 W · 50 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Tauson60c45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1882560.5%499 W · 326 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad2…d17fbacked Tauson59c39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.991172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Kessler39c38.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.97,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4f…73a6backed Tauson59c38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.581266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae69…0c24backed Tauson59c37$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.171580%12 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+31.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6191…e505backed Tauson59c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.35450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a2c…38ccbacked Tauson59c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.31752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ec…06aabacked Tauson59c29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.89955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4182…ae54backed Tauson59c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.481450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa029…c912backed Tauson59c28$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.481758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae28…5d17backed Kessler41c26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.662653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Kessler40c25.74$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.224846%114 W · 134 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacc…23c6backed Tauson59c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.431471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51e5…9fcabacked Tauson59c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.021275%9 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc727…adc2backed Tauson59c21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.611145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick66cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe09c…f300backed Tauson75c20.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.013177.4%24 W · 7 L+7.6wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+63.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x7219…fcf7backed Tauson59c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.381758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…7d27backed Tauson59c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.381258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a14…8610backed Tauson59c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.971782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.9wins+0.29per pick53cpaid+54.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.