Europa Conference League · resolved market
Samsunspor vs. KF Shkëndija 79: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bdedde91dca823910d61e9dc83252d81b3436e7d2d3fd86780a1040349fb46c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 2,618$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,777.22 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Under | 74c | 2,180$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 64c | 1,764$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.07 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 8c | 1,702$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.7 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 8c | 1,244$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,141.89 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 8c | 1,100$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…0380backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed Under | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 8c | 439.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.68 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Under | 66c | 434.24$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.6 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Under | 75c | 357$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Over | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 302.81$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.54 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…d837backed Under | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Over | 37c | 263.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.81 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 29c | 260.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.78 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 33c | 233.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…9aadbacked Under | 68c | 146.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 18c | 145$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf27…67ebbacked Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed Under | 70c | 129.32$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Over | 36c | 105.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 34c | 92.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 189 | 40.2%76 W · 113 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20c…bf55backed Over | 27c | 71.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked Over | 33c | 65.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c77…8f06backed Under | 67c | 59.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked Over | 73c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 32c | 47.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c91abacked Under | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 43.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 33c | 35.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 61c | 22.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 68c | 19.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 66c | 18.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Samsunspor vs. KF Shkëndija 79: O/U 3.5this page
- Samsunspor vs. KF Shkëndija 79: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Samsunspor vs. KF Shkëndija 79: O/U 1.5Over won
- Samsunspor vs. KF Shkëndija 79: O/U 2.5Over won
- Samsunspor vs. KF Shkëndija 79: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: KF Shkëndija 79 (-1.5)Samsunspor won
- Spread: KF Shkëndija 79 (-2.5)Samsunspor won
- Spread: Samsunspor (-1.5)Samsunspor won
- Spread: Samsunspor (-2.5)Samsunspor won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.