TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,372

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,584 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6814…a9e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates45c2,833$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,554.892,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Reds49c1,808$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.161,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda0f…d41cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates74c1,332$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.253855.3%21 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c975.13$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.281,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked Cincinnati Reds53c836.71$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.4612247.5%58 W · 64 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds55c590.65$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.862,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c418.63$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.81,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates47c395.36$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.4630842.9%132 W · 176 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b65…6518backed Cincinnati Reds30c353.38$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.942832.1%9 W · 19 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick51cpaid-36.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds23c343.68$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Cincinnati Reds53c340.97$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5812552%65 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds33c324.45$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.719,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Cincinnati Reds47c307.17$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8561346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates66c293.64$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Cincinnati Reds32c252.46$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.788032.5%26 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates48c196.82$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.3560350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Cincinnati Reds33c196.8$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.521,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Cincinnati Reds54c185.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3860451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cincinnati Reds55c176.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.31,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Cincinnati Reds52c167.52$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1132348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Cincinnati Reds54c144.06$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7966551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Pittsburgh Pirates71c138.53$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2746557.2%266 W · 199 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99be…3622backed Pittsburgh Pirates55c137.34$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.085752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Pittsburgh Pirates44c130.45$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5613742.3%58 W · 79 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Cincinnati Reds46c121.58$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1766749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Cincinnati Reds57c119.64$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.191,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Cincinnati Reds57c119.64$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.191,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…72ebbacked Cincinnati Reds57c119.64$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.194231%13 W · 29 L-6.8wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-42.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Cincinnati Reds57c119.64$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.191,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1030…dd7abacked Cincinnati Reds57c119.64$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.198246.3%38 W · 44 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04eb…f50dbacked Cincinnati Reds53c116.4$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2618754%101 W · 86 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Cincinnati Reds24c110$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2642241%173 W · 249 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Pittsburgh Pirates46c105.73$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.611,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates44c103.78$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.1868942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates48c99.98$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9927248.5%132 W · 140 L-1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Cincinnati Reds57c92.61$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7924348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Pittsburgh Pirates45c67.17$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9414444.4%64 W · 80 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x387b…fd56backed Cincinnati Reds36c56.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.051741.2%7 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds57c56.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.026,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Cincinnati Reds53c55.29$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1556946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2787…ed8dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates50c54.32$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.16875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+37%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Cincinnati Reds55c53.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1946659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Cincinnati Reds57c52.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8339351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds55c51.91$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.755,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Cincinnati Reds61c51.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1147345.7%216 W · 257 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Pittsburgh Pirates45c51.04$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0714442.4%61 W · 83 L-9.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Pittsburgh Pirates60c49.74$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0716351.5%84 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fe…f286backed Pittsburgh Pirates52c44.86$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7316453%87 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Cincinnati Reds57c42.73$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3629450.7%149 W · 145 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Pittsburgh Pirates47c41.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.231,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Cincinnati Reds34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.66835.3%24 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Cincinnati Reds55c38.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4147848.5%232 W · 246 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds52c37.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.515,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Cincinnati Reds31c37.39$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5978146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Cincinnati Reds52c37.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4233051.8%171 W · 159 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68cc…e8c8backed Cincinnati Reds52c37.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4232647.9%156 W · 170 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Pittsburgh Pirates53c36.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9487352.7%460 W · 413 L+9.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds33c35.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7784122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Pittsburgh Pirates53c34.08$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.021,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.225452%132 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates47c29.68$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7346547.1%219 W · 246 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Pittsburgh Pirates48c27.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0527146.9%127 W · 144 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8f…f31bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates48c27.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.057345.2%33 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9c…1700backed Pittsburgh Pirates48c27.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.055757.9%33 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Pittsburgh Pirates48c27.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0525349.4%125 W · 128 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf421…2e3abacked Pittsburgh Pirates48c27.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.052944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates48c27.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0545246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x810d…6080backed Pittsburgh Pirates48c27.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.057748.1%37 W · 40 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Pittsburgh Pirates48c27.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0528646.2%132 W · 154 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b8c…31c3backed Pittsburgh Pirates48c27.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.055841.4%24 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates45c23.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.856,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5676…7da7backed Cincinnati Reds53c23.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.346248.4%30 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Cincinnati Reds54c21.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6721656%121 W · 95 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa427…f87fbacked Cincinnati Reds53c21.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.219948.5%48 W · 51 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Cincinnati Reds51c20.41$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4156851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Pittsburgh Pirates68c19.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.284,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe757…c161backed Cincinnati Reds56c18.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.716437.5%24 W · 40 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.