MLB · resolved market
NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a16e30aba7668d299ea134c07122e1b81312dcf6360a49eee2e65f38c81901e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bfc…6762backed No | 41c | 985.11$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.72 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…476cbacked Yes | 64c | 764.38$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 36c | 707.69$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.9 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 37c | 525.48$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.05 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 43c | 492.87$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.43 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a7…3bb2backed Yes | 63c | 310.41$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked Yes | 65c | 234.95$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.59 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc7…7f02backed Yes | 64c | 195.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed No | 37c | 189.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.42 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 7c | 171.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Yes | 63c | 170.73$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 252 | 47.6%120 W · 132 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Yes | 50c | 162.61$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Yes | 63c | 156.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03c…b352backed Yes | 64c | 153.02$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2d…8622backed Yes | 65c | 151.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…68fbbacked Yes | 64c | 91.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes | 50c | 79.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Yes | 64c | 70.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…d614backed Yes | 64c | 61.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed No | 39c | 54.91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 36c | 35.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…7812backed Yes | 63c | 27.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3063…65b3backed Yes | 64c | 21.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NRFI: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Redsthis page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.