Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4be60e9629850a996d86e836f1a9406c80027fe5982c7a0faf64c11f1fab5259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Aurora | 78c | 8,825$6,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.57 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Yakutou Brothers | 23c | 7,622$1,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770.65 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Aurora | 77c | 4,262$3,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.44 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Yakutou Brothers | 21c | 4,253$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.89 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 2,406$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.72 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 21c | 1,586$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yakutou Brothers | 21c | 1,558$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.8 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Yakutou Brothers | 24c | 1,155$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.6 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed Aurora | 75c | 1,142$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.39 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Yakutou Brothers | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yakutou Brothers | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Aurora | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Yakutou Brothers | 15c | 347.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Yakutou Brothers | 27c | 314$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Aurora | 76c | 223.68$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Yakutou Brothers | 21c | 166$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…1069backed Aurora | 77c | 109.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…03cbbacked Yakutou Brothers | 24c | 105.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Aurora | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yakutou Brothers | 20c | 87.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora | 76c | 83.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Yakutou Brothers | 25c | 67.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed Aurora | 75c | 67.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Aurora | 78c | 63.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Aurora | 75c | 61.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc98…b902backed Aurora | 80c | 26.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…2bc6backed Aurora | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Aurora | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group AAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.