Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68a438e2661d7e814812abd03865b23d8e5ec1b7e5082cbb3162a8639c043018
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2586…f071backed Yakutou Brothers | 25c | 2,113$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.75 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yakutou Brothers | 18c | 1,467$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.36 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4594…b1acbacked Aurora | 70c | 1,442$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Yakutou Brothers | 26c | 1,168$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.66 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yakutou Brothers | 22c | 984.97$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.58 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yakutou Brothers | 23c | 971.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.18 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked Aurora | 79c | 924.86$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.13 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yakutou Brothers | 16c | 897.34$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.06 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Yakutou Brothers | 28c | 800$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 77c | 780.93$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.93 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Aurora | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…d2b3backed Aurora | 75c | 542.22$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.15 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…342dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 47c | 490.15$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.37 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed Yakutou Brothers | 25c | 400.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Aurora | 75c | 400$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Aurora | 79c | 379.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Yakutou Brothers | 28c | 333$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yakutou Brothers | 30c | 319.41$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed Aurora | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Aurora | 79c | 272.64$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 77c | 240$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Aurora | 78c | 179.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 19c | 175.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Yakutou Brothers | 22c | 160$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora | 75c | 128.41$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Aurora | 76c | 122.81$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yakutou Brothers | 21c | 110.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Aurora | 80c | 84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed Aurora | 79c | 82.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…1761backed Yakutou Brothers | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yakutou Brothers | 22c | 62.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Aurora | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Yakutou Brothers | 28c | 53.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…869abacked Aurora | 76c | 50.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…21d9backed Yakutou Brothers | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora | 76c | 36.68$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Aurora | 79c | 33.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Aurora | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Aurora | 76c | 28.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Aurora | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 73c | 18.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group AAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.