Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb2e93b76fa28ebc9ab4f6bcf4e0fcb0811ae3d40d0003821221e1876dcae049
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Yakutou Brothers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 15,289$2,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,533.8 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 3,885$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.58 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked Yakutou Brothers | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed Aurora | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.24 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yakutou Brothers | 20c | 1,214$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.06 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yakutou Brothers | 19c | 805.58$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.06 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98c…bf06backed Aurora | 78c | 680.76$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…fd2dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 22c | 680.76$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 599.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yakutou Brothers | 19c | 599$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.59 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…c953backed Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 531.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yakutou Brothers | 9c | 410.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Aurora | 79c | 316.46$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yakutou Brothers | 18c | 295.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yakutou Brothers | 12c | 291$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 252.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…d12fbacked Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 237.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 280 | 62.9%176 W · 104 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da7…f04bbacked Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 205.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Yakutou Brothers | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Yakutou Brothers | 20c | 196.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Yakutou Brothers | 8c | 189.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yakutou Brothers | 13c | 175.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Yakutou Brothers | 11c | 147.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb28…02bbbacked Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 128$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0846…a401backed Yakutou Brothers | 20c | 122.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Yakutou Brothers | 18c | 112.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…6333backed Aurora | 77c | 107.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yakutou Brothers | 16c | 98.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Yakutou Brothers | 11c | 95.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…688abacked Yakutou Brothers | 21c | 95.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yakutou Brothers | 22c | 88.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Yakutou Brothers | 15c | 86.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Yakutou Brothers | 21c | 83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yakutou Brothers | 17c | 67.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbc…5dfcbacked Aurora | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b2…41f8backed Aurora | 80c | 62.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…ff13backed Aurora | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e4…2a20backed Aurora | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Aurora | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Aurora | 74c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…19cdbacked Aurora | 79c | 14.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.