Tennis · resolved market
ITF W15 Logrono Women: Paula Cembranos vs Iveta Dapkute
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c03a69df7ea9e31a15bd7d013595e47dc1edeeac6aebce5bcd0c2f08d302e34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paula Cembranosof Paula Cembranos, Iveta Dapkute
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Iveta Dapkute | 27c | 4,507$1,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.98 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Paula Cembranos | 72c | 700.56$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Paula Cembranos | 67c | 626.45$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.29 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Paula Cembranos | 79c | 364.94$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Paula Cembranos | 57c | 300$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.2 | 788 | 38.2%301 W · 487 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Paula Cembranos | 69c | 253.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.74 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…23b4backed Iveta Dapkute | 41c | 180$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Paula Cembranos | 67c | 115.54$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Iveta Dapkute | 35c | 95.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Iveta Dapkute | 16c | 91.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Iveta Dapkute | 43c | 89.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Paula Cembranos | 75c | 88.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 489 | 47.4%232 W · 257 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Paula Cembranos | 70c | 84.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 648 | 37.5%243 W · 405 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Paula Cembranos | 76c | 83$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Paula Cembranos | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 341 | 49.9%170 W · 171 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Paula Cembranos | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 940 | 58.4%549 W · 391 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Paula Cembranos | 69c | 61.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Paula Cembranos | 71c | 52.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Iveta Dapkute | 44c | 23.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95e…102abacked Paula Cembranos | 57c | 20.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Paula Cembranos | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Paula Cembranos | 65c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1,710 | 53.7%918 W · 792 L | +30.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Paula Cembranos | 74c | 13.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 625 | 49.6%310 W · 315 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.