Asian League · resolved market
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c1a02921f4e9caa3873683faa921d4c34ecac7011bbec04c40ad723bde29a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,221
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,221 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 3,263$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.38 | 1,354 | 45.4%615 W · 739 L | +14.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 18c | 3,069$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,523.2 | 1,306 | 56.9%743 W · 563 L | +67.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 26c | 1,612$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.14 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f1…1395backed Over | 61c | 821.68$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 75c | 560.96$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.22 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 80c | 555.65$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.45 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e73…c4ecbacked Over | 61c | 513.72$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over | 16c | 499.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.95 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Over | 61c | 490.52$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.93 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 18c | 400$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Under | 7c | 398.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 7c | 282.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.27 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Over | 75c | 255.91$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed Over | 22c | 229.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 188 | 38.8%73 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 10c | 195.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Under | 11c | 165.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 29c | 115.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…038ebacked Under | 16c | 113.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 77c | 98.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.94 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Over | 14c | 98.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 76c | 86.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Over | 18c | 79.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 61cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 46c | 55.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…b3edbacked Under | 72c | 40.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 79c | 40.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 1,214 | 50.2%610 W · 604 L | +12.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 80c | 33.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 79c | 26.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 79c | 26.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 79c | 22.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 2,397 | 37.8%905 W · 1,492 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-1.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
- Spread: Qingdao Hainiu FC (-2.5)Qingdao Hainiu FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.