Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs MODUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c2d59143288f800eb7ea2e6d01019d5f7d50a8a0f3c25d90a730bb89178b8cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof ALIS VENTORUS, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed MODUS | 58c | 2,312$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.02 | 504 | 49.2%248 W · 256 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 49c | 1,131$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.66 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 14c | 879.36$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.44 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 50c | 778.84$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.96 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 48c | 768.91$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.66 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e64…284bbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 42c | 734.87$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 34c | 599.98$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.99 | 459 | 40.5%186 W · 273 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f1…8cc6backed ALIS VENTORUS | 53c | 579.87$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…e615backed MODUS | 61c | 475.5$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9f…b921backed ALIS VENTORUS | 43c | 451.03$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 50c | 425.17$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.32 | 2,367 | 47.3%1,119 W · 1,248 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed MODUS | 66c | 423.71$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.66 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked ALIS VENTORUS | 61c | 421.43$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.72 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed MODUS | 53c | 394.55$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.44 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed ALIS VENTORUS | 50c | 345.94$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.65 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…9d6abacked MODUS | 52c | 335.81$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.24 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe207…56c7backed ALIS VENTORUS | 62c | 269.32$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.48 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked MODUS | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 695 | 52.2%363 W · 332 L | +45.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed MODUS | 60c | 244.27$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.88 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked ALIS VENTORUS | 6c | 230$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…efbcbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 67c | 203.19$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 235 | 55.7%131 W · 104 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed MODUS | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 969 | 42.8%415 W · 554 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae27…6fb2backed ALIS VENTORUS | 34c | 182.45$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked MODUS | 37c | 165$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed ALIS VENTORUS | 37c | 149.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed ALIS VENTORUS | 35c | 144.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed ALIS VENTORUS | 35c | 132.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…d735backed MODUS | 29c | 129.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed MODUS | 66c | 117.48$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd59…b185backed ALIS VENTORUS | 77c | 116.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked MODUS | 36c | 114.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed MODUS | 73c | 111$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed ALIS VENTORUS | 31c | 98.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 63c | 93.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…adffbacked MODUS | 63c | 92.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…51eabacked ALIS VENTORUS | 35c | 90.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed MODUS | 54c | 85.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed ALIS VENTORUS | 51c | 83.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed MODUS | 69c | 79.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked MODUS | 69c | 69.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 49c | 61.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86d…575fbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 34c | 56.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13af…b19fbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 36c | 53.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d515backed ALIS VENTORUS | 62c | 52.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 359 | 48.2%173 W · 186 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked MODUS | 38c | 52.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked MODUS | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed MODUS | 71c | 47.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed ALIS VENTORUS | 34c | 45.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2957…b26abacked MODUS | 58c | 45.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked MODUS | 69c | 42.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked ALIS VENTORUS | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 350 | 32.3%113 W · 237 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…9482backed MODUS | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed MODUS | 66c | 32.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed MODUS | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…c22ebacked MODUS | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed MODUS | 46c | 31.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MODUS | 38c | 30.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1,255 | 49.6%623 W · 632 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.