Tennis · resolved market

Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Caty McNally

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c2e954edf2a1b556638dc1c879bd8adbf41b142a46ac5250ad7a04a54cf8418

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Marta Kostyukof Marta Kostyuk, Caty McNally
Resolved: Apr 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $189,965
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $209,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,965 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xba81…dc35backed Caty McNally	15c	41,523$6,157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,156.75	222	42.8%95 W · 127 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Caty McNally	9c	8,008$738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.88	4,934	41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L	-77.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e71…eba7backed Caty McNally	11c	6,221$711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$710.96	122	35.2%43 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7402…8020backed Caty McNally	14c	6,149$854 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$853.93	75	26.7%20 W · 55 L	-4.6wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Caty McNally	10c	5,802$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.18	819	38.9%319 W · 500 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Caty McNally	8c	4,219$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.91	721	32%231 W · 490 L	-17.8wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f9…feafbacked Caty McNally	18c	3,771$678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$678.5	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.11per pick	29cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Caty McNally	17c	3,368$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.53	428	39.7%170 W · 258 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x134f…2b5dbacked Caty McNally	5c	2,827$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.45	170	44.1%75 W · 95 L	+6.1wins	+0.04per pick	41cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Caty McNally	16c	2,425$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.07	2,462	38.5%948 W · 1,514 L	+93.1wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x287d…38febacked Caty McNally	13c	2,371$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.24	374	21.9%82 W · 292 L	-7.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Caty McNally	7c	2,289$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.23	204	59.3%121 W · 83 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Caty McNally	5c	2,261$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.78	574	47.7%274 W · 300 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c87…98b1backed Caty McNally	1c	2,100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	226	2.2%5 W · 221 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Caty McNally	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.01	582	32%186 W · 396 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb392…99a8backed Caty McNally	18c	1,586$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.24	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb32d…c4b8backed Caty McNally	7c	1,300$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2816…6ad7backed Caty McNally	17c	1,231$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.04	75	37.3%28 W · 47 L	-9.7wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb6c1…92b8backed Caty McNally	7c	1,227$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.92	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x471c…3b43backed Caty McNally	10c	1,018$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.01	175	49.7%87 W · 88 L	+5.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a21…ba51backed Caty McNally	6c	786.33$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.18	104	28.8%30 W · 74 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf7…a506backed Caty McNally	17c	684.14$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.3	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+3.3wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+11%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Caty McNally	12c	579.98$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.69	380	13.9%53 W · 327 L	-38.3wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0xbaa2…1973backed Caty McNally	5c	565.8$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.29	212	43.9%93 W · 119 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed Caty McNally	17c	558.94$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.02	681	57.6%392 W · 289 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11ab…7ad1backed Caty McNally	17c	550.89$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.04	157	34.4%54 W · 103 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf96d…20bebacked Caty McNally	12c	527.99$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.23	482	14.1%68 W · 414 L	-14.8wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x901b…59efbacked Caty McNally	10c	473$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.3	295	19.7%58 W · 237 L	-15.5wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6aa1…a420backed Caty McNally	11c	365.26$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.76	512	36.5%187 W · 325 L	-10.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Caty McNally	7c	319.07$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	302	25.8%78 W · 224 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Marta Kostyuk	79c	296$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.16	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Marta Kostyuk	79c	296$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.16	116	59.5%69 W · 47 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Caty McNally	8c	295.25$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.62	753	12.2%92 W · 661 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Caty McNally	16c	288.53$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.16	1,284	39.2%503 W · 781 L	-12.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Caty McNally	14c	287.67$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.18	440	38.4%169 W · 271 L	-27.2wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-29%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Caty McNally	13c	243.1$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.92	903	35.8%323 W · 580 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2409…215ebacked Caty McNally	16c	237.4$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.98	244	50.8%124 W · 120 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Caty McNally	16c	220.9$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.34	587	34.6%203 W · 384 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Caty McNally	9c	219.11$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.93	130	33.8%44 W · 86 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+10%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa39…e4afbacked Caty McNally	15c	218.59$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.28	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb804…cd66backed Caty McNally	19c	200.29$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.06	154	16.2%25 W · 129 L	-12.1wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x10ff…5088backed Caty McNally	20c	182.91$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.7	661	39.3%260 W · 401 L	-5.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Caty McNally	16c	162.16$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.95	3,661	45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L	-8.7wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b67…829fbacked Caty McNally	16c	148.04$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.69	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	34cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed Caty McNally	10c	142.73$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	366	40.7%149 W · 217 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81a4…da1fbacked Caty McNally	17c	139.74$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	138	50.7%70 W · 68 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ff…6672backed Caty McNally	8c	129.91$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	155	12.9%20 W · 135 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Caty McNally	16c	122.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	567	44.6%253 W · 314 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Caty McNally	14c	120$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	957	42.1%403 W · 554 L	-24.9wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56ae…9badbacked Caty McNally	17c	104.52$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.77	486	37.7%183 W · 303 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Caty McNally	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1,510	37.7%569 W · 941 L	+24.5wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a3…3f36backed Caty McNally	16c	89.88$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.38	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.18per pick	25cpaid	+36%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf86…5394backed Caty McNally	17c	83.62$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	37cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Caty McNally	16c	81.6$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.06	3,901	50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L	-13.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x65a0…2a86backed Caty McNally	24c	79.53$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.09	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+14%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d04…022bbacked Caty McNally	16c	76.92$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.31	145	31.7%46 W · 99 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4113…d7a8backed Caty McNally	17c	74.42$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.78	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49aa…b3bbbacked Caty McNally	22c	64.93$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Caty McNally	16c	63$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	1,489	32.6%486 W · 1,003 L	+22.2wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…1613backed Marta Kostyuk	80c	61.75$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.35	86	55.8%48 W · 38 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfff2…3f58backed Caty McNally	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.2wins	-0.32per pick	46cpaid	-77.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Marta Kostyuk	80c	28.03$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.61	345	49.9%172 W · 173 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed Marta Kostyuk	77c	24.64$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.64	652	64.1%418 W · 234 L	+21.6wins	+0.03per pick	61cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd9d…2269backed Marta Kostyuk	80c	20.14$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.03	61	65.6%40 W · 21 L	+5.4wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+18%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Caty McNallythis page
Kostyuk vs. McNally: Match O/U 21.5Under won
Marta Kostyuk vs. Caty McNally: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs McNallyKostyuk won
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs McNally (+1.5)Kostyuk won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Caty McNally

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event