Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c404af285d176dd08bf5800cbeddebe8fac3e3f6396fdc89c2655cc63fd2a2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 20c | 3,546$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.27 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.29 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 730.06$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.67 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 22c | 640$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 592.94$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.3 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Yes | 22c | 573.96$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Yes | 17c | 510$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…24f0backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed No | 80c | 495$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 69c | 492.23$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…036abacked Yes | 45c | 488.31$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 200 | 50%100 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 79c | 374.66$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.14 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 79c | 315.87$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.23 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed No | 80c | 269$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16f…a33fbacked No | 78c | 253.2$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 80c | 190.19$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 22c | 135$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 21c | 134.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d55ebacked No | 78c | 107.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 80c | 86.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…c0fabacked No | 80c | 64.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed No | 77c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 56.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074c…771cbacked No | 55c | 55.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed No | 79c | 52.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 30c | 50.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…bbd2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed No | 58c | 46.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 32c | 37.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 202 | 44.6%90 W · 112 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 80c | 34.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…dc21backed No | 60c | 33.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +46%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 80c | 30.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 239 | 51.5%123 W · 116 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 76c | 27.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 76c | 18.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a8…9c69backed No | 79c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 78c | 15.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 108 | 63.9%69 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked No | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Astana FK vs. FC Dinamo City end in a draw?this page
- Will Astana FK win on 2026-07-16?No won
- Will FC Dinamo City win on 2026-07-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.